2030 - a fiction
Well, it wasn't exactly difficult to forecast - even in 2023! - but the first prediction has just come true...
I wrote this Orwellesque imagining of a global political future over a year ago, since when I have tried - and failed! - to find someone to take it. Perhaps that isn't surprising. Given we in the UK are on the eve of a General Election - the first event referenced in the narrative - then it’s now or never in terms of letting this story see the light of day.
To be clear, I’m not saying that this is a scenario I wish to happen - but it is one possible reality, an alternative climate- and politics-impacted reality across the UK, the US, China, Russia, and the EU. And a somewhat scary one at that…
2030 - a fiction
In the UK…
2023 is a year of inflation, strikes and turmoil. The government is hit by one issue after another. Inflation remains high, the pound weak, stock markets jittery. Forced into an election in mid-2024, the Tory vote collapses and Labour win a landslide. However Labour remains ‘pink’ rather than ‘red’, launching grand initiatives they cannot possibly fund and, like all governments from the previous generation, endeavour to buy votes through tax cuts. They cannot find a workable balance. When they prove unable to govern effectively (devolution from Westminster failing; popular uprisings against persistent inequality continuing; more strikes; no easing of cost-of-living; ambiguous attitudes to the US, the EU, China and Russia) their government collapses too. An early-2025 general election is inconclusive.
Out of the rubble ‘The Coalition’ is born: a group of ‘hard-line moderates’ from across the political spectrum who have been scheming in the background for the best part of two years. They form a new party — “Integrity” — and sweep to power in a second 2025 election promising radical and decisive government: an overhaul of the tax system (with higher taxes and more central management), better funding of public services (police, education, NHS), more temporary public ownership, more effective response to climate change, a radically different foreign policy. There is more volatility the year after Integrity comes to power (with associated social unrest which is summarily quashed), then stability begins to return. The ‘feel-good factor’ is back — or sold and promoted — in 2027; Integrity use that as justification for their methods, implementing policies requiring a harder line, more coercion. The response to climate change is what earns Integrity the greatest kudos and loyalty.
Scottish independence happens in 2027. Many see it as the ruthless cutting adrift of a ‘rogue nation’ by Integrity. The Scots try to rejoin the EU but are rebuffed as the bloc has more pressing issues to deal with.
On the other hand, Welsh aims for independence are squashed. There is violence. By 2028 to be either Scottish or Welsh and living in England is to invite suspicion. The Treason Bill is passed after the 2029 election, accompanied by the death penalty.
In a similar vein to Scotland, Northern Ireland is sacrificed to Eire. The issues with the Irish border disappear as Ireland is now totally in the EU — and the EU’s problem. There is some violence and turmoil on the island; it becomes dangerous to be a Loyalist.
Thus in 2030 the UK (now just England & Wales) is a very different entity to that from the beginning of 2026, and more of an autocracy. Singapore is held up as a role model. The Government has become ruthless. The 2029 election is ‘a landslide for Integrity’ (their slogan); the size of their majority raises suspicions of election rigging.
Culturally, role of the Arts changes subtly; it becomes less about holding up a mirror to the world and more about entertainment. There is aggressive re-shaping of the BBC, and a shake-up of broadcasting licences leading to some restrictions on choice. An increase in ‘reality tv’ sees new shows promoting the kind of veneer Integrity wish people to buy into. Partly in consequence, language splits into two broad streams: old English and vernacular English (the medium for ‘reality tv’). The division in language is representative of a class divide. Old English is the language of privilege and power, nowhere better embodied than in the division of Education into two core streams including a cull of ‘lower grade’ private schools. Those which remain become even more elitist. Faith schools are outlawed. The 11-plus returns in a new guise. The number of Universities is halved, Integrity wanting to make degrees far more aspirational. Although now grant-funded, students have to work harder to get a degree — but the rewards are greater. Overall standards of educational attainment go up — but those who fail are cast adrift at 16 because it makes no economic sense to invest any more in them.
Throughout all of this, the people are torn. The majority are grateful for what Integrity has delivered — in spite of the pain endured to get there — and most can see a brighter future. But there is a concern in some quarters that the cost may have been too great, too many liberties having been sacrificed. People look to how things are in Russia and China, as they do with the US. Such comparisons are not always favourable, nor fuelled by fact. There is still an undercurrent of rebellion, especially from the under-classes, the ‘uneducated’, the poor, the Scottish, Irish and Welsh — but they lack the power to be effective or are too scared to act.
By 2030 the UK has become increasingly marginalised on the global stage. Whilst partners still collaborate and recognise where the UK continues to lead the world (in a decreasing number of areas), Integrity is regarded with some suspicion. Other countries have achieved approximately the same results over time (economically at least) though through different methods. Borders may remain more or less open, and political relationships are as ‘special’ as they always have been. The UK faces more diplomatic hurdles than it had in the past, and its voice internationally is somewhat weaker.
In the US…
Polarisation in the USA becomes more pronounced than ever, Republicans and Democrats taking increasingly extreme positions at opposite ends of the political, ethical and social spectrums. Claim and counter claim, policy and counter-policy begin to dominate the debate; effective politics is semi-paralysed. Elements of the right become more extreme and the Republican party splinters somewhat, only occasionally brought together from their internal warring to ensure that the Democrats are powerless.
The constitution comes under pressure; amendments are invoked and attacked, attacked and invoked. The Second and Fifth Amendments become the battleground for many. Politicians play out the cycle of the 2024 presidential election as if nothing had changed. It is an election the Democrats win but only just, fending off a last-minute swing to right in sympathy for the Republicans after Trump is assassinated by a teenage black Democrat who sees himself as an avenging angel. The number of large US cities with an overall black / Hispanic majority increases — something which only serves to fuel the more radical right.
The instability in the political system can do nothing but spill over into everyday life, ordinary people becoming as intrenched in their views as the politicians on Capitol Hill. By the middle of 2026 political disagreements take over as being the number one reason for fatal shootings. Previously hot issues — such as race, gay rights and abortion — are relegated in importance, something the White House tries to portray to the rest of the world as social progress. Yet the country has never been so divided. An ex-President declares “We are in the middle of a civil war, yet none of our so-called leaders seem prepared to admit as much.” In some cities, areas begin to style themselves as ‘Democratic’ or ‘Republican’; older Americans invoke the bad old days of racial segregation. Or the Wild West.
The political dichotomy is mirrored in the country’s economy with the coasts — East, West and South — becoming increasingly affluent and exclusive, and the heartlands poorer (though the Republican / Democrat divide is everywhere). The impact of the Climate Change ‘tipping point’ is therefore mostly felt where the money is. But there is no great inland migration, only a further concentration in narrow coastal bands (especially east and west).
The primacy of Wall Street — which suffers post-Ukraine instability almost as much as anywhere else — is gradually undermined in that China’s opening up allows its own economy to challenge for global dominance. No longer is it just the US which, when it sneezes, gives the rest of the world a cold. By the end of the decade this new economic frailty emboldens China and other previously ‘closed’ countries to aspire to a larger slice of the capitalist pie — and associated commercial influence.
In terms of Social Media, the Arts, Sports etc. very little changes over the period. There is a reining back in terms of some of the commercial excesses in sports with owners finding their budgets squeezed. The attempt to expand the NFL beyond the US ultimately proves a failure and the sport retrenches — including a reduction of two teams which shocks Americans most of all.
In the south and west, the contributions of Hispanic and black artists and writers increases noticeably — as it does in Hollywood. But Hollywood continues to have its own problems in terms of inclusivity, race, gender bias etc. The #MeToo movement peters out with less overall impact than had been hoped. Not only is residual inequality an issue, but commercial pressures bite in the film industry too, and there is an increase in independent production with collaborative movie estates set-up in cities such as Seattle, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Chicago.
Gradually the US withdraws from the world stage where it can, primarily to concentrate on domestic matters, only taking a leading role where it has no choice e.g. in relation to Russia, Climate Change. The apparent softening of attitudes in China comes as a blessing in terms of allowing the US to continue to promote its role as being a world-leading force for good.
In Russia…
With the war in Ukraine at a stalemate, in the autumn of 2024 Russia detonates a small-scale nuclear device over Kiev. Given the frightening alternative, this escalation forces China’s hand to publicly unite with the rest of the world against Moscow. As a result, Russian soldiers refuse to fight and the police refuse to arrest protesters. Within days Putin is removed from office and arrested, to be later tried and convicted of war crimes. He is replaced by a far more moderate leader who, realising how much Russia has been weakened by the war and sanctions, has to kowtow to the West in order to try and begin the rebuilding of the Russian state. It is the end of the imperialist dream.
At the beginning of 2025 Russia’s economy is in free-fall and a new revolution is underway. Under the new regime, previously held political prisoners are released. As a condition for support from the west, Russia is forced to undertake a truly democratic election the following year. Rebuilding Russia’s economy — and Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure — proves to be fertile ground for new Sino-Western cooperation. The people-led communism that arises in Russia as a result is softer, more open, more commercial.
Although Russia’s regeneration (both political and economic) is seen as triumph for democracy, dialogue and compromise — and most of all for the people of Russia — trust is something that will take longer to reestablish overseas. Some countries (and not just Ukraine) choose to keep Russia at arms-length.
From 2026 western brands begin to return to Russia. The reopening of McDonald’s is seen as a major coup. There is a fully-fledged charm offensive underway within a few months, and in 2027 Russia opens itself up to tourism in a way it never has before. Within a couple of years it is unrecognisable from the country Putin dominated.
The Arts flourish in this new-found freedom. There is talk of a renaissance. Russian painters start exhibiting in London and Paris; a Hollywood movie (Marvel) is shot entirely on location in in the country. There is an exorcism of the past led by the people (akin to the kind of purging Germany went through post-Hitler).
By 2028 Russia has regained much of its lost respect, and once again has a seat at global top tables.
In China…
Forced off the fence by developments in Russia, China finds it is able to establish parity with America through their joint efforts to re-stabilise the region. With the US facing its own internal difficulties, China finds its international stock rising as a result. Internally, attitudes to the West soften and there is an increase in trade and cooperation. Beijing realises that it can achieve its ambitions via more open and cooperative policies, and begins to contribute more liberally to things like joint research, space programmes, and — most significantly — the fight against climate change (which has begun to have a material effect).
Although there is no reduction in Chinese nationalism (including aspirations in the direction of Taiwan), Beijing allows other voices to be heard — most noticeably when it invites the US President to speak at the national assembly.
After earlier protests in Hong Kong, the adjustment in the government’s stance to the rest of the world also allows a greater degree of tolerance to be applied towards its own citizens. By no means a free system, the state finds a way — through newly created ‘Peoples Parliaments’ — to be seen to give more of a voice to its populous. Although many are suspicious of these institutions, they are welcomed.
Following on from the success of its approach in Russia, China begins to take a similar tack with North Korea. There the progress is slower, but China is able to draw North Korea back from the brink. By 2030 there are quarterly meetings between North and South brokered and chaired by Beijing. Aid to North Korea begins to flow again.
The increasing influence of China overseas — and the growth in collaborative initiatives — acts to kick-start the economy again. There are certain areas of research and technology where China establishes itself as the clear global leader, with obvious commercial benefits.
Although in many respects the Chinese market remains as closed as it always has been, it is more transparent. ‘Managed capitalism’ has a role to play — which it does, though still under the watchful control of the state.
In the EU…
Three things created a ‘perfect storm’ for the EU: the UK’s departure; the rise of nationalism in many countries; and the desire of more countries in eastern Europe to be admitted to the bloc (partly driven by the war in Ukraine). When the EU briefly expands to include virtually the whole of Europe (except the UK, Norway, and Switzerland) people begin to ask ‘what’s the point?’ — especially as it becomes increasingly difficult to get anything agreed. Truly common ground is ever-harder to find. The machinery of the bloc grinds to a halt. Some countries break ranks on specific issues that are important to them. By the end of the decade a number of countries have held or are planning to hold referenda about leaving the EU. One or two have simply threatened to break EU law and leave in an uncontrolled fashion.
Given both the economic and political situation, by the end of the decade the bloc is really no more than a symbolic coalition.
The economic difficulties resulting from the Russian-Ukraine war hit the whole of the EU, but different countries are affected in different ways e.g. by volumes of refugees, the need for increased defence for those with a Russian border. The climate change crisis doesn’t help. It becomes increasingly apparent that there is no ‘one size fits all’ economic policy which will work — putting further strain on the Euro. Trading arrangements come under ever greater scrutiny, and for many countries free movement of EU citizens is a real headache: for the richer because of their attractiveness to economic migrants; for the poorer because of the desire to escape. Rather than a group aspiring to achieve the highest denominator for all its members, it becomes a race to the bottom, homogenised at the lower- rather than higher-end.
In order to maintain order at home — and in the face of growing protests and nationalism — some of the more prosperous countries begin to introduce quotas and tariffs as a means of self-protection. By 2030 the general consensus of opinion is that the EU is about to implode, and that when it fractures those countries outside the EU will be best-placed to benefit commercially.
And Global Warming…
In 2025 there is a climate ‘tipping point’ no-one sees coming, the result of a sudden shift in the climates at both poles. Weather-events begin to stabilise after a while, but only following a seismic increase in sea levels, and the readjustment of what ‘summer’ and ‘winter’ will look like. Some island countries suffer dreadfully, especially in the Indian Ocean. All countries are affected; coastal nations particularly so. The Seychelles and Maldives virtually disappear, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Madagascar all suffer.
In the UK, when the water-levels started rising, people moved inland from the coast — largely into already densely populated areas. Here the big northern cities come into their own, Integrity driving an aggressive policy to repurpose old mills and vast swathes of brownfield sites to accommodate those migrating from the coast. Doing so eventually leads to a shift of power away from the south where there was significantly less capacity to expand; capability and expertise in ‘The North’ develops rapidly. It is true ‘levelling-up’ — but progress that was enforced by natural disaster and economic and cultural necessity.
The long-talked of threat having manifested itself, the major industrial nations are forced to act seriously and concertedly. The US and China take the lead, and are universally praised for doing so. By 2030 much remedial — and radical — activity is underway, though the final outcome for the planet is still far from secure…